Day 4 in Budapest and Barcelona is in action today, with Barcelona possibly being a wash out until around 16:00 UK time. The matches in Budapest look difficult to predict today, while in Barcelona we have 5 sub 1.20 favourites in the shape of Carreno-Busta, Thiem, Nadal, Murray and Goffin.
Murray v Lopez
In normal circumstances this would be an easy victory for Murray, with their head-to-head currently reading 11-0 in favour of the Scot. However, Murray’s lost match on court was a lost a 3-set loss to Albert Ramos-Vinolas after being a double-break up in the third.
Murray could have done with some match practice yesterday against the clay averse Tomic, but instead he was given a walkover by the mercurial Australian, read more here RAFAEL NADAL AND ANDY MURRAY ADVANCE TO THIRD ROUND IN BARCELONA OPEN. Meanwhile, Lopez was a comfortable winner against Albert Montanes, losing just 4 games.
This match-up could be more difficult for Murray than the odds suggest and I’ll be looking to oppose Murray in some way. I’d expect Murray to come through this test mainly due to their head-to-head stats but it won’t be easy. Murray’s serve hasn’t been at its best since his return aginst Muller and Ramos-Vinolas and I wouldn’t be surprised to see many breaks of serve again here. So the bet I’ll be going for today is a +4.5 game handicap on Lopez at 2.20. For people wanting more value I’d suggest backing Murray to win 2-1 at 4.50
Goffin v Khachanov
In my preview a few days ago Can Goffin go deep in Barcelona?, I tipped Goffin to go deep here in Barcelona. I’d have expected him to meet with Pablo Cuevas here today, but instead his opponent is the young Russian Karen Khachanov.
Khachanov defeated Cuevas yesterday in two tight sets, winning 7-6 7-6, after coming from a break down in the second set. Meanwhile, Goffin wasn’t too convincing in his match against Basilashvili in the first set and the 6-0 second set is very flattering considering the Georgian fell away after losing the first set.
I still expect Goffin to come through this match and go on a good run here in Barcelona but this match isn’t going to be as easy as his second set was yesterday. It is key to note that Khachanov trains in Barcelona and loves the conditions here, so he isn’t going to allow Goffin to dictate play.
The young Russian has a great chance here today but I’d still expect Goffin to come through victorious and make his way into the next round. However, this could be a potentially long match with plenty of games so I’d recommend backing over 21.5 games in the match at 1.83.
Lopez +4.5 games @ 2.20
Over 21.5 games in Goffin v Khachanov @ 1.83